Mogadishu, Somalia — As al-Shabaab insurgents reassert control in key regions and political divisions deepen across Somalia’s federal map, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is pressing ahead with an ambitious and controversial election reform agenda, one that critics warn could exacerbate instability and undermine fragile state-building gains.
The centerpiece of the president’s initiative is a shift to a “one person, one vote” electoral system for the 2026 national elections. The move, in theory, would mark a dramatic departure from the clan-based indirect voting model that has defined Somali politics for decades.
But in practice, it has sparked a new political crisis, with regional leaders, opposition parties, and civil society accusing Villa Somalia of sidelining consultation, rushing implementation, and risking national cohesion.
“The idea of universal suffrage is popular, but the process matters,” said Nur Abshir, a constitutional law expert based in Nairobi.
“Without transparency, inclusiveness, and legal consensus, even a good idea can lead to dangerous outcomes.”
Power struggles behind closed doors
The president’s administration has moved swiftly in recent weeks to centralize control over the electoral process, reconstituting the National Independent Electoral Commission, introducing new legislation without parliamentary consensus, and sidelining federal member states that previously played a role in managing elections.
Officials within Puntland and Jubaland, two semi-autonomous regions often at odds with Mogadishu, have denounced the changes as unconstitutional.
In a joint communiqué issued last week, the two governments called the new framework “a unilateral imposition” and refused to recognize any electoral timetable devised without their input.
Behind the scenes, international partners are growing increasingly concerned.
“There is no doubt Somalia needs electoral reform,” said a senior diplomat from the African Union, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
“But the current path risks pushing key actors out of the political process altogether. That could open the door to wider conflict.”
Security on the Brink
Simultaneously, Somalia’s security situation is deteriorating.
After initial gains in the federal government’s offensive against al-Shabaab in 2022 and 2023, the militant group has launched a counteroffensive, retaking towns in central and southern Somalia.
In recent weeks, government troops have withdrawn from strategic districts in Galmudug and Hirshabelle following sustained insurgent pressure.
Analysts attribute the setbacks to poor coordination, low troop morale, and strained relations between the national army and local clan militias as well as federal states—many of whom feel politically alienated by the president’s centralizing agenda.
“You cannot win a war while fighting your own allies politically,” said a former Somali intelligence official. “The military campaign is suffering because the political coalition that supported it is collapsing.”
Historical Echoes and Public Distrust
Somalia has been here before. In the lead-up to the 2021 elections, the country was nearly torn apart by political standoffs over term extensions, electoral frameworks, and accusations of constitutional violations.
That crisis ended only after months of mediation by regional actors and foreign governments.
President Mohamud, re-elected in 2022 on promises of reconciliation and consensus-building, is now being accused of repeating the very missteps he once decried.
In Mogadishu, public opinion is split. While many citizens express hope for direct elections, others are skeptical of the timing and motives.
“We want real democracy,” said Amina Yusuf, a university student. “But not like this. People are afraid the president is building a system just to stay in power.”
Turkey, Gulf States Watch Closely
Complicating matters further, Somalia’s strategic Red Sea location has made it a focus of geopolitical competition. Turkey, already a key military and economic partner, recently signed a sweeping oil exploration deal with the Somali government.
Critics say the agreement was rushed through with minimal oversight, potentially locking the country into lopsided terms for decades.
The Gulf States, too, are watching the political transition closely.
The UAE, traditionally aligned with both federal government and regional states, is wary of any consolidation of power in Mogadishu that undermines its regional allies.
A Test for the Somali State
Experts warn that unless the president recalibrates his approach and engages federal states and civil society in meaningful dialogue, the electoral reform project could backfire, triggering political boycotts, renewed clan conflict, and further military setbacks.
“This is a defining moment for Somalia’s federal experiment,” said a former foreign diplomat who had previously worked in Mogadishu.
“If inclusive politics fails again, the consequences will be lasting and profound.”
For now, Somalia remains suspended between promise and peril. Whether the president’s bold gamble leads to reform or rupture may depend not on ideals — but on whether he can build the consensus that democracy demands.
