By Judy Maina (Judy.maina@alleastafrica.com)
NAIROBI, Kenya — Once considered a key vehicle for Somalia’s fragile political consensus, the National Consultative Council (NCC) now stands hollowed out, having lost the last remnants of its credibility as a neutral negotiating platform.
The latest blow, analysts say, comes not with a dramatic collapse, but with quiet absorption: its effective co-option into President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s new Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP).
President Hassan Sheikh’s recent announcement of yet another NCC meeting scheduled for June 22 has drawn skepticism both at home and among Somalia’s international partners.
According to Somali and foreign observers, this initiative appears less about reconciliation and more about buying time — a maneuver to diffuse mounting criticism while he consolidates control.
“The NCC is no longer a national instrument. It has become a partisan tool dressed in federalist clothing,” said a Western diplomat familiar with Somali political mediation efforts.
“There’s no pretense of inclusivity anymore.”
Stalemate, Not Settlement
President Mohamud, now in his third year of an increasingly turbulent presidency, shows few signs of seeking meaningful compromise with his political opponents. Instead, insiders and analysts say, he is digging in.
“The Somalia National Consultative Council (NCC) has ceased to exist as a relatively credible instrument for Somali political settlement the moment it agreed to be co-opted into Hassan Sheikh’s Justice and Solidarity Party,” says Rashid Abdi, a senior analyst with Sahan Research think tank.
“HSM is digging in. He is in no rush to cut a deal with opponents. He appears to have no intent for good faith dialogue with the opposition to resolve Somalia’s deepening security and political crises.”
Indeed, the opposition — while vocal — remains fragmented. Despite public declarations of unity among various factions, internal rivalries and divergent goals have made it difficult to mount a coordinated challenge.
This, sources say, is a central pillar of the President’s strategy.
“That opposition too riven to mount a robust and unified challenge.” Abdi said in a tweet Friday.
Misplaced Confidence?
Despite the deepening crisis, the President’s confidence, however, is built on several assumptions that may prove dangerously optimistic.
First, he is wagering on Turkey’s continued and ‘unqualified’ backing.
Ankara has provided financial aid, military training, and political cover, especially amid deteriorating relations between Villa Somalia and Gulf actors.
Second, he remains assured that Western donors — including the European Union, World Bank, and the United States — will keep Somalia’s budget afloat despite increasing concerns about accountability and misuse of funds.
“There’s a donor fatigue setting in, but not yet donor abandonment,” said a Somali economist working with a multilateral institution.
“Hassan is exploiting that buffer while it lasts.”
Third, the President appears to believe his control of key military units and clan militias is enough to withstand both political unrest and sustained Al-Shabab pressure.
That belief, analysts say is being tested daily in Hirshabelle and Galmudug, where Al-Shabab has reversed many of last year’s military gains.
“Somalia is once again approaching a tipping point,” warned a Horn of Africa security expert.
“The center is overconfident, the peripheries are angry, and the insurgency is regaining ground.”
International Optics and Quiet Alarm
In public, many international actors continue to express support for Somalia’s federal roadmap, but beneath the surface, frustration is growing.
Sources say donor governments are increasingly concerned that Somalia’s leadership is prioritizing short-term regime survival over national reconciliation and security.
“There’s a growing consensus that the HSM administration is not serious about reform,” said a senior analyst at an international think tank, based in Nairobi.
“The problem is, there’s no Plan B.”
Meanwhile, the planned June NCC meeting, which would ordinarily be welcomed as a sign of political maturity, is instead being read as a strategic distraction.
“The timing is political theater,” said one regional diplomat.
“It allows the President to claim engagement, while offering nothing substantial.”
A Slow Drip Toward Breakdown
As 2025 wears on, Somalia’s political crisis is not exploding — it is quietly deepening.
With every co-opted institution and delayed compromise, the prospects for a durable national settlement slip further away.
In Mogadishu, the mood is tense but not yet desperate.
Opposition leaders are calculating. Donors are hedging. Militants are watching.
And President Hassan Sheikh? He remains — for now — unflinching.
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Background: What Is the National Consultative Council (NCC)?
The NCC was created as a high-level political coordination forum bringing together the federal government and leaders of Somalia’s federal member states.
Originally designed to facilitate consensus on elections, security, and governance, the body gained legitimacy during the former president Mohamed Farmaajo’s administration. Under Hassan Sheikh, however, critics say it has been reduced to a rubber stamp for presidential decisions, with limited participation from genuine opposition voices.
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Insight Box: Why This Matters
Institutional collapse: The weakening of the NCC eliminates a crucial forum for federal dialogue and compromise.
Security at risk: Without a functioning political process, Somalia’s military gains against Al-Shabaab could unravel.
Aid credibility crisis: Western donors may start demanding more conditions or reduce direct support if governance concerns persist.
Opposition disarray: The failure of unified opposition efforts gives Villa Somalia space to maneuver — but for how long?
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