NAIROBI, Kenya – The United States on Friday issued a pointed warning to Somali leaders over their efforts to unilaterally reshape the country’s political and electoral systems, cautioning that decisions taken without broad consensus could undermine Somalia’s fragile stability and distract from ongoing security challenges.
In a statement posted on X (formerly Twitter), the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs said “All relevant stakeholders should have a say in changes to Somalia’s federal and election systems. Decisions taken without broad based support will lack legitimacy and distract from pressing security challenges.”
The statement appeared to be a thinly veiled rebuke of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his administration, who earlier this week convened a national consultation forum in Mogadishu, attended primarily by allied Federal Member State leaders—many of whose terms have expired and whose participation in the process has been criticized as unrepresentative.
The communique from the Mogadishu forum, dated May 7, 2025, outlined steps toward restructuring Somalia’s federal and electoral framework, including centralization of key election authorities and timelines for constitutional changes.
Notably absent from the meeting were key stakeholders, including the Puntland regional administration and major political opposition figures, who have voiced strong objections to the reform process being dominated by Villa Somalia.
U.S. officials and regional observers fear that President Mohamud’s rapid consolidation of political allies and attempts to restructure the federal system could deepen Somalia’s internal divisions.
With national elections expected in 2026, critics warn that reforms implemented without wide-ranging consultation could erode public trust and provoke political backlash, especially in regions already wary of Mogadishu’s influence.
“This is not just about legal reform—it’s about who controls the future of Somalia,” said a senior African Union diplomat based in Nairobi.
“The more exclusionary this process becomes, the greater the risk of political fragmentation and renewed instability.”
Somalia continues to grapple with a deadly insurgency led by al-Shabaab, and many analysts argue that political unity is essential to sustaining the military and diplomatic gains made in recent years.
The U.S., which provides critical counterterrorism support and funding to Somalia’s security institutions, views political cohesion as a cornerstone of its engagement in the country.
While the Somali government has defended the consultation forum as inclusive and constitutional, Puntland authorities rejected the process, accusing Villa Somalia of pursuing a top-down agenda under the guise of reform.
“Somalia is a federal country. Any attempt to rewrite that without genuine consultation will be seen as illegitimate,” said a political analyst in Mogadishu.
“The U.S. message makes clear that legitimacy cannot be manufactured.”
It remains to be seen whether the U.S. warning will prompt Villa Somalia to recalibrate its approach.
For now, tensions continue to simmer between the center and the periphery—just as the country enters a pivotal phase in its post-conflict transition.
